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The convergence of the Internet and the Phone by 2012 |
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Written by Fraser Shipsides
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Friday, 19 December 2008 |
 The Web and mobile phone technologies that we use today are constantly evolving. If we compare how we used our phone four years ago with today's use then the next four years should be very interesting. Mobile phones are incorporating more and more of the functionality that we come to expect from computers. Mobility is the key. People have busier lives and want more information and functionality "on the go". All the signs show that this will only increase in the future.
The term "Mobile Web 2.0" has been used to describe the future of web/phone technology and we will see the emphasis put on pushing information/data onto the Internet whilst enabling the user to extract more information/data they require. This can obviously be already done but the ease in which it can be done will improve exponentially. Users will become "Empowered".
Many major companies have seen the rapidly growing demand for advanced
web access via mobile phones and now provide a mobile version of their
site. This will increase to downloadable applications and features that
can be used in real time. The current generation of phones (e.g. IPhone
3G, Blackberry Storm, Nokia N96 and the Samsung M8800 Pixon etc) all
offer the latest multimedia features that combine the web with the
phone.
The main barrier to Mobile Web 2.0 is the lack of industry standards in
mobile phones and the incompatibility of those phones with web
applications/formats. Web applications have developed over time but you
still get web users trying to access pages that are not compatible with
their computer. Now try and do this from a phones that use completely
different technologies altogether. Mobile phone technologies will
change and you will probably see the emergence of two or three leading
architectures. Once this happens then they can concentrate on Internet
compatibility issues.
The barriers facing Mobile Web 2.0 will be similar to those of today.
As the overall technologies standardise then the barriers will come in
the form of usability issues and tradeoffs in handset features (screen
size etc):
- The screen size: The bigger the screen the bigger the phone
and yet the smaller the screen the less usable space there is for the
user. This trade-off will be an everlasting issue that will come down
to a user’s preference.
- Navigation: Touch screens have found
themselves at the navigation system of choice but Joysticks/Flicker
buttons have been found to be more user friendly and quicker to use.
This will become a user preference.
- Web technologies (Flash/JavaScript/Cookies): These basic web functions will become a standard in all handsets.
- Speed:
Broadband connections on a computer are much quicker than on mobile
phones (as a rule) and phones can often have signal/connection issues
that often make it slower. The difference in phone/pc web access will
probably not be an issue within four years.
Mobile Web 2.0 will change the future of e-commerce by becoming very
user orientated. As the bandwidth of phones improve so will the
marrying of rich video/data/audio from the web to the mobile phone
screen. Users will be enticed into downloading/accessing different
applications/features. Tools and applications will become easier and
more and more will be offered through deals with phone operators.
Mobile advertising is growing by the day and we could one day see it
being the primary source of advertising as it can be user/location
specific.
The convergence of web and phone technologies will have a big impact on
the press industry. With the combination of better camera phones and
the ability to upload videos to the web, this will mean a mass coverage
of news. News will appear more and more in the real time. It will no
longer come from reporters with a camera crew but from individuals that
are there in that moment. Members of the public will become the
reporters and will combine with the newsreader to create "breaking
stories". This will combine the best of the old with best of the new.
The media industry will be shaken up in the form of new content. The
average person will have greater access to better cameras (probably on
their phone) and so will be able to create more original/relevant
material. The industry could be split between user generated video and
produced content. Videos will be easier to make and will be made from
more re-life situations. The editors of this material will become more
important because they will have to sort out "the wheat from the chaf".
Social networking will grow in size but will remain similar in its
features. It will bring more people together and will probably be all
location based. You will be able to locate your friend via their mobile
phone, e.g. your phone will let you know if a friend is within a mile
radius.
Most of these issues I have described above only effect the western
world but the convergence of web and mobile phone technologies will
help the poorer nations as well. If we take Africa as an example then
the average person does not have the access to a computer with a
broadband connection. Africa has a varied supply of resources and
different levels of development throughout. The mobile phone industry
is growing in Africa and now over 1/3 of the population has access to a
mobile phone. Schemes such as the National Farmers Information System
(NAFIS) integrate the web and telephony applications. There is a voice
information service that provides farmers with daily info in English
and Kiswahili at either the cost of phone call or going online.
"Tradenet" has been set up linking farmers and suppliers throughout
Africa. It is access via the phone or the internet and lets users know
of any offers to buy and sell goods, market prices, gives users SMS
alerts and market reports.
In summary, the future of web and mobile phone technologies is bright
and intertwined. As one develops, the other will have to evolve to
accommodate. The main differences between now and 2012 will be the
speed of connections/downloads and the number of applications available
to users. Different types of handsets will come and go but the
platforms that underpin them will enable users to be more independent
through the use of mobile real time media.
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